Mesoscale Discussion 37

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   850 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Riverland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 850 AM EDT - 1100 AM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Line of severe thunderstorms may cross into Riverland.

   DISCUSSION...Some strong to severe thunderstorms are located currently

   west and northwest of Riverland. Some of these storms may cross into Riverland,

   and if they do, they have the potential to cause winds in excess of 60 MPH.

   The line could maintain itself for another hour or two. Due to the uncertain nature

   of the line after an hour or two, a watch may not be needed, however it is being

   monitored.

   ..Diamond.. 08/18/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...

   Mesoscale Discussion 36

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   1240 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Fictonia region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 1240 PM EDT - 130 PM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forming in western Aqualand 

   and eastern Iredale, and will move east/southeast. WW issuance 

   is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Some strong thunderstorms have developed

   in Aqualand and Iredale. These storms have the strong potential

   to produce wind gusts in excess of 60-70 MPH, as one storm is

   already producing at least 70 MPH wind gusts. These storms

   will continue to spread out, but may weaken at the same time.

   WW issuance is being watched closely and a watch may be issued

   if the conditions are there for further considerable and/or 

   destructive SVRs.

   ..Diamond.. 07/25/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IDL...VRS...

   Mesoscale Discussion 35

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

   Areas affected...Aqualand

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23...

   Valid 1005 AM EDT - 1130 AM EDT

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23

   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing across 

   western Aqualand. Trends are being monitored for a downstream SVA.

   DISCUSSION...Some very strong severe thunderstorms developed an hour

   ago across western Aqualand but have since weakened slightly. They are

   still containing wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. SVA 23 remains in effect for

   another hour, and with the chance of severe thunderstorms persisting past

   watch expiration, a new watch may be needed. Trends are being monitored

   for a downstream watch.

   ..Diamond.. 07/25/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...VRS...

   Mesoscale Discussion 34

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   825 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Fictonia region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 825 AM EDT - 930 AM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible 

   for the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Some strong thunderstorms have developed

   in Aqualand, Iredale, and Orbisonia. Some of these storms could

   strengthen and achieve severe status as they move east. However,

   the threat is not expected to be major, so the probability of a

   watch is less than 50%. Still monitoring though in case of an

   unexpected jump of severe activity.

   ..Diamond.. 07/25/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGW...IDL...VRS... 

   Mesoscale Discussion 33

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   410 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

   Areas affected...Northwestern Fictonia region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 410 AM EDT - 600 AM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A (breaking) line of severe thunderstorms will move through 

   northern Grandlandia and western Riverland. As mentioned, the line is 

   breaking apart, so a watch isn’t immediately likely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving into

   northwestern Riverland. This line is breaking apart, but will uphold

   severe criteria for at least another hour. A WW watch is being monitored.

   ..Diamond.. 07/24/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...MTN... 

   Mesoscale Discussion 32

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   605 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

   Areas affected...NW Epsilon del Norte into Central Fictonia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 605 PM EDT - 700 PM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some strong to severe thunderstorms will impact SW Deltaland, NW 

   Epsilon del Norte, and SE Fictonia over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across Fictonia.

   Some of these thunderstorms have the significant chance to be severe, especially

   with the hail.

   A WW watch is being monitored.

   ..Diamond.. 07/22/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SCT...SKR...

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...60-70 MPH

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

   Mesoscale Discussion 31

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   415 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Epsilon del Norte into Epsilon del Sur

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 415 PM EDT - 600 PM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some strong to severe thunderstorms will impact the Epsilons over 

   the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across Epsilon del Norte

   and Epsilon del Sur. Some of these thunderstorms have the chance to be

   severe, particularly with the hail.

   A WW watch isn't immediately likely but is being monitored.

   ..Diamond.. 07/22/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SKR...

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...60-70 MPH

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

   Mesoscale Discussion 30

   Fictonia NWS Storm Prediction Center

   1030 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Cascadia into eastern Carbon

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 1030 AM EDT - 1130 AM EDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of gusty showers and thunderstorms will move through

   much of central Carbon late this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of

   Carbon and Riverdale. If a small bowing cluster can

   become established as some real life models suggest,

   then a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds may be

   realized across parts of Carbon later this morning as the

   boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating.

   While not immediately likely, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may

   eventually be needed if the ongoing activity can intensify.

   ..Diamond.. 07/20/2025

   ...Please see www.fictonia.net/weather/spc/md for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGW...CAR...MTN...

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...60-70 MPH

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN